Words:research,news,knowledge,humor,discourse,conversation,business
Sound:noises,music,songs,downloads,mp3s,news,radio,conversation
Video:pictures,flash,cartoons,movies,tv,conversation,phones
In a little under 10 years we went from accessing text through gopher to listening to music, watching the latest episode of survivor, IMing one friend, and talking to another across the world?all at the same time. And if I want to know how to make a cup of chai, I can access the recipe and directions a thousand times over within seconds. I remember when I could only access the Internet at my high school, which had a connection to the local university. Now, I can answer a question stumping everyone at a party through my mobile phone, which calls up google for me in seconds. So far I only pay around $20 for my home broadband access and $40 for my unlimited data plan on my mobile phone. Yet, I can access almost anything for free through those two pipes. The only subscription I have is to the Wall Street Journal, which I enjoy to read and they don?t supply for free. Advertising pays for a lot of this, but as most know, much of this is well?just used.
So, what will I have at my finger tips in the next 10 years? Between peer to peer file sharing technology improvements, lower cost bandwidth, ubiquitous wireless access, and a proliferation of devices that can access anything, I expect I should be able to do all of this, but faster, with higher quality and easier. I want to be able to listen to XM radio from my mobile phone, decide I want to keep the song for later that I?m listening to, pull up the nightly news (video) when I get home from work, have the WSJ read to me in the bathroom while I shower, and be able to see my friend across the world that I?m talking to on the phone while showing her the funny clip from a TV show I watched the night before. (long sentence used to dramatize how all of this will be accessible anytime, anywhere and all at once if desired) Oh, and I don?t expect to pay anymore. In fact, I expect that the cost will go down a bit. So, who?s going to pay for this? Well, I think it will be product companies. I don?t see anything that can be displayed on a screen costing money. I do however expect to be persuaded to drink more Diet Coke, buy new clothes more often and be enticed to run to the store to get the latest gadget, etc. However, in a time that will be over stimulated, I expect less advertising that?s in my face, but more subtle. For example, it may be that the can of soda in every video clip I watch happens to be Diet Coke, because Coca-Cola would know I like Diet Coke and they would pay to have it so that everything I watched would show only Diet Coke (of course, Pepsi may overbid them every once in a while as simple as Google AdWords and I may see a few Diet Pepsi cans occasionally). I happen to like PDA type phones more than the latest thin phone, so Warner Brothers may make it so that every movie/TV show I watch just happens to have the latest one laying around in a scene with a character that it knows I like (it would know I like the character as simple as Amazon knows I have taste for philosophy, business, and Harry Potter). This would then inspire me to likely get it after repeated visuals, and if I bought it immediately from watching, then the WB of course would get a larger commission. Product placement, I believe will pay for everything. Content will be free. Do I think there will be no advertisements? No, but I expect they will be more ?on demand? when I?m interested in something (for example SOBE may get their can in one day promoting their new energy drink. I may then be curious, touch it on my screen and be taken to an advertisement telling me what it is and why I should try it). Oh, and I?m a privacy nut, so I sure as hell hope that someone figures out how to let me give up some of this information without having it abused so that I can do all this for ?free.?
Brainstorming software
I wish I had more energy to chase building a company right now, but this just doesn?t quite interest me enough. Maybe later, I?ll build this, but for now I?m just going to share the thoughts. Imagine brainstorming with a large group of people, but you don?t have to listen to anyone talking, especially not the ones that overpower groups anyway. But, imagine you get a high amount of collaboration and ideas generating off of other ideas. What if it was just a piece of software? Now, imagine you have people logged in to a piece of software that doesn?t look much more complicated then a chat, but instead of streams of peoples conversations linearly floating up the screen with their name, it?s anonymous bubbles floating upwards like under the sea. As you see an idea, written inside one of these bubbles it makes you think of one, and you write it. This could go on for 15-20 minutes. Now, connect a reference database to it so that images started floating up replacing some of the words users are typing. You could add sounds as well, ultimately providing a visual experience of brainstorming. At the end, all the ideas are captured in a report and could even tell you who came up with each.
Google?s indexing the universe
While Google is happily indexing everything they can crawl to, I?m left wondering why all those brilliant mathematicians and marketers can?t come up with a better return then a laundry list of miscellaneous web sites that have words on them that match what I asked for. How many times do you scan, click, scroll, return, and repeat until you finally find what you?re looking for? It?s painful. Here?s a thought. Why not take all the intelligence gathered and change the paradigm. I noticed the other day that when I was playing around with the keywords associated with an AdWords campaign I had built, Google was able to recommend other keywords. It seems to me that based on my key words it knows something about them, which leaded me to wonder if it knows enough to categorize my results so that I can more easily find what I am looking for. Here?s a simple example. When I search for ?Montana fly fishing,? I am returned results for sites that provide informative information about fly fishing, places to fly fish, etc. Additionally, I?ll find sites for fly shops in different parts of the world. Another key category is fly fishing guides and outfitters. So, why can?t Google take all the results, categorize them as best as possible and then show me a relationship representation so that I could drill down only on those pertaining to fly fishing guides, which was what I may have been looking for in the first place.
System Execution
In today?s society, we are constantly surrounded and dependent on systems. Some work well and protect our lives and others well, let?s just say someone didn?t do enough testing. The one that gets me every week is the Seattle train system that moves me from the N gate back to baggage claim. After the train has taken off, it suddenly accelerates. The funny part is that this startles everyone, every time because the message, ?Please hold on? is delayed by about one second, just long enough to not warn you until it?s too late. It?s all about execution of a good system, not just the idea.
Random Comments
I have the Treo 600 from palmOne, which I happen to think is the best smart phone on the market today, but the Internet browsing experience is pathetic. The download speeds on the GSM network are so slow. Two things I think would improve this experience without having to improve the technology much. First, fix the cache so that it doesn?t feel like you?re downloading all over again when you go back into the page and second add a ?alt-tab? type of option that allows you to do other things while you wait for the web page to load.
Again as most of my life is bouncing here and there, yesterday I thought about how much of a pain it is for me to get music off/on my iPod. I am sure Steve is thinking of something along this line, but if I had WiFi built in I could access music on the fly from iTunes and/or my laptop on a wireless network. No wires? 🙂
Mobile Dating and SMS Flirting
A while back I actually thought about connecting people in a club with each other through an online profile managed instantly from their mobile phone. As soon as they walked into a club it would be like friendster on steroids. If they were looking for love, then it would attempt to find a match with someone that was on the same page. You can imagine the possibilities. I also thought of building a proprietary system that I could then lease to clubs. I kept this idea pretty under wraps only sharing with a small group of people to test the idea. As it turns out, with over 6 billion minds on this planet sometimes two or more think of the same thing. This kind of dating is now available in the clubs of Europe and America, so I no longer have the jump on the market. But, I still envision a world much more networked today. Yes, we are at our computers a great deal of the day, but wouldn’t it be nice to have some technological ice breakers when we go out for coffee. I’d like to be able to walk in to Starbucks and find out there was someone in there with my same interests and also wanted to go see a movie tonight. Of course at a flip of a switch I would be “invisible”, and be able to choose whether or not I wanted to be bothered (e.g., my message going out to others). The possibilities are endless. You could be somewhere and need to settle an argument and an expert could be immediately found (maybe in person or virtual). In this day of age where most don’t know their neighbors, I think it would be great.
Update: Sounds like this is taking off.
In Japan, the cultural shift in mating practices has been driven even faster by new phone technologies. So-called proximity dating services use the ability of new generation phone networks to pinpoint the location of mobile handsets. By entering their own profile and the profile of their dream partner, Japanese teens can rely on their phone to alert them – and offer an introduction – whenever a potential mate is around the corner. The service is massively popular. – The Sydney Morning Herald
Update (1/21/07):
Hooking Up in the Information Age
Mobile dating platforms offer revenue-generating opportunities, but security concerns slow down uptake on the LBS component.
Update (1/21/07):
“SK Telecom and Psynet are launching a truly revolutionary service. Weekend clubbing will never be the same. Subscribers are starting to plan their evenings out based on receiving location-based date notifications on their mobile phones,” said Tasso Roumeliotis, CEO of WaveMarket. “While this is the first launch of its kind – one that uses carrier-based location – we foresee that many other operators in the world will be able to use location data to enable a whole new range of dating and social applications.”
Mobile Media
It seems that all the big players are getting ready to launch the next thing for mobile phones. Over the last year everyone grabbed a camera phone. Now, you’ll be getting a media phone, with the early focus being on music. Most players are teaming up with Microsoft and the Windows Media DRM (subscribe to FierceWireless email). Motorola on the other hand has also gone the route of hooking up with Apple?s iTunes. This is a great next step, but as I travel a lot I am often away from my iPod, home computer or stereo system yet seem to always have some form of access to the Internet. I would rather not have to store my music anywhere. I’d rather have access to all of my media (e.g. MP3’s) regardless of device anywhere I can access the Internet. In this model, someone else would store it and my home computer, laptop, mobile phone, living room stereo, alarm clock, etc. would be able to play any song or even any video I own. This would solve the storage problem quite a bit and as data rates increase via cellular and WiFi becomes more prevalent.
Update 3/3/06: With Metro Wi-Fi networks coming available in the next few years and more 3G high bandwidth cellular networks available, this idea becomes more possible. The highest probable entrants would be device manufacturers or the communications carrier (either Wi-Fi, cellular or satellite). A company could build a subscription model where an individual would have access to any song or radio feed at any time on any device. While jogging a user could pull down their favorite radio station or listen to their favorite band. When they get home, they could immediately transfer that experience to the home stereo that would pick up where they left off. After they’ve showered and changed, they head out again to meet up with a friend across town. As they get in their car, the car stereo recognizes them and again picks up where they left off in that album they were listening to.
Next Generation Treo – Smartphone
If you?re goal is to own this smartphone market and you know you have to have the carriers love you, then I?d go for the high revenue generating features. I believe these to be trending toward music, gaming and data communications. Let?s talk convergence. Most folks like having separate products because to this date they?re usually better, but the moment you combine something well you?ve got it.
Music.
First I think you hit ?the? audience if you can combine the iPod and the Treo. Mobile music is going to be huge. Our society has been disconnecting from each other for a long time and the idea to pop some head phones in and essentially hide from people has really caught on. Not to mention you?d finally give those idiots that walk around with their Bluetooth headset always in their ear a decent excuse. The win for the carrier is when you provide over the air downloads of music. (Hell, if you really want to entice them make it possible for Peer-2-Peer software to work and the data traffic will go through the roof. Imagine if everyone had their music on their phone, which is always on and always sharing away their, um? files…)
Next up is gaming.
There is a generation that most product designers don?t even understand. They grew up with a computer, a gameboy and the ability to connect with their friends over email, IM and SMS. This is the generation that actually interacts with each other, albeit not via voice or in person. By providing a gaming platform where folks can play interactive games and communicate with each other such as with services like Xbox Live, you?ve created a product that appeals to an up and coming consumer group and again can drive a tremendous amount of revenue depending on how the carriers charge for that bandwidth.
(Note to carriers: I love unlimited bandwidth. I don?t think the answer here is to try to get back to charging me for every kilobyte used, but if you price it right you?ll still make a profit because everyone will want the data part of the plan. You?re total ARPA should still be able to stay stable or increase depending on how you price the package. For example, most people want voice, but hardly use the minutes. The magic price point is somewhere between $30-$40, and you can then tack on the $20-$50 data package, which puts your ARPA way up. The key is having enough things to use that data package for to warrant it being added on)
Now, Nokia is obviously heading down this path with the ngage, but have you seen that thing? It?s huge. Again, design will rule, just ask Steve. The other key I believe is providing a platform for the major developers to easily port to from their existing Gameboy or upcoming Play Station Player (PSP) games. As for other data communications, simply put, give away IM software and make SMS actually work (this is something the carriers need to fix; i.e., guaranteed delivery of failure notification).
email
Additionally, we need to rethink email on your mobile device. At work (or could be school) and home I may prefer to read my email on the web so that I can type more and read the message easier. However, I also email a lot during the day (revenue driver for carrier) and often get emails out of sync between the server copy and the one on my phone. Meaning, if I pop my email account to my web email client then the message is no longer available for my Treo to pick up, and if I didn?t finish reading everything I popped, then I?m out of luck until I can get back to that website. Now, I realize I could set that pop to ?leave messages on the server,? but I still have the scenario where I may pop the email into my web email, not finish reading it all, then pop it into my Treo (since it?s still on the server) and now have two copies that I have to go and delete. This is a pane. I think Danger?s Hiptop is the closest. On their platform if I delete an email on the website, it?s also deleted from my mobile device and vice a versa. This is cool, but I?m forced into their web application. What if I want to use Thunderbird or Outlook Express? Here I think you?re making progress, but haven?t made the giant leap. Let?s get together with Good Technologies or RIM and make it all happen. As you may note I didn?t say anything about web browsing. Well, this is so screwed up I don?t know where to start. It takes a day to load one web page and for some reason even with cache it takes half a day to go back to a web page I already visited (regardless of carriers). In summary, you?ve got your work cut out for you, but there are some great opportunities out there and you are the leader. I?m looking forward to the Treo 6000. Let me know if you want any help.
- If you want to be really cutting edge and also have something ahead of the curve release a Treo that only works on WiFi (or have dual radio if carrier allows you). The day I can use my treo on a wifi network and call with Skype is going to change the world
Letter to the Airlines
When I book a ticket on my own dime I usually have a destination in mind and want the cheapest ticket. Why can?t any of the sites just tell me, “hey, the cheapest possible way to get you to Somewhere, State on the third weekend of march is if you fly on our 6pm flight Friday, and are willing to go through Somewhere Else, Other State. Or tell me hey, I understand you want to fly on these specific dates, but if you fly at these times here are the discounts because those planes aren’t very full right now. And speaking of booking tickets do you really need to jack the price up the last minute? Have you ever thought about lowering it to just fill the plane? Note to non-airline websites, if you let me just give you the dates and destination and find me the absolutely lowest possible fare regardless of airline, I?m your customer for life. Note back to airlines, I?ll stick with you if you let me get a discount for turning in a bit of mileage or foregoing earning mileage for the trip.
Ok, so let?s talk about some of the things that I think are either annoying or odd while flying.
- Interruptions by the captain. I’m watching my movie and all of a sudden he/she is talking. That pause feature never seems to work and the voice usually makes me miss a key scene. Some of them go on forever. Someone needs to tell them that we really don’t care what the weather is like where we are going to land, or the flight speed or how happy they are that we chose to fly with them.
- And speaking of long winded announcements, flight attendants should also keep it short and sweet. I think some of them feel powerful when talking on that mic and enjoy hearing their voice thunder over the terrible intercom.
- Does anyone know why I have to put my bag under the seat in front of me? I like keeping it under my legs so I can stretch them out. I asked once and the flight attendant said it was so everyone could get out in an emergency. I guess I can understand this, but why is it only during take-off and landing? Seems to me that you can’t really do much evacuating at those times.
- Being told that mobile phones may disrupt the navigation devices, then hearing one ring as we’re safely landing.
- 500 mile upgrades. Just tell me when I’m eligible for first class.
- Checking in. why does it take me four clicks on a kiosk, but 5 minutes of typing if I go to the checkin counter.
- Does anyone know the “rules” for using curb side checkin? Why isn’t that used more often? Are we really so stingy that we’d rather wait in long lines then tip the folks outside a couple bucks?
- Could we please come up with something other then making everyone have to take their shoes off? At least give us some carpet.
- And how about laptops? I can keep a mobile phone with as much electronic guts as a laptop, my iPod, powered ear phones, AC adapters, my mouse, etc. but the laptop has to be seen outside the bag?
- Temperature of the cabin. Why does the captain, locked in his little room control the main cabin. Often it’s too hot or too cold. Let the flight attendants manage this
- Anyone know why the windows have to be open in the main cabin for take off and landing?
- I believe that a good majority of passengers are business passengers that fly often. Can we get some more updated media for the TVs? If the airports can run CNN, why can’t you? Let’s upgrade those old VHS players, install some TiVos.
- Stop wining and thanking me profusely for choosing your airline. It’s just weird.
- Can you figure out something to let me sleep and not have my head falling all over the place? Good attempt on the curve in sides of the headrest, but not quite. Oh, and while you’re at it, any reason why the chair is shaped such that my head is pushed forward rather then preferably allowing me to lean it back so that it rests. Add a neck roll and I think we’re there.
- Does anyone use those air phones? I’m glad it’s finally getting cheaper, but am I really going to pay $10 a month?
- When am I going to get internet access. Now that’s something I’ll pay for. Hell, you could put little computers in, offer IM access and probably make a ton of money.
- Why do they come around to collect trash two minutes after they gave you your drink. Am I supposed to slam my soda?
- Who the hell decided the middle guy shouldn’t get any elbow room?
Answer found:
DO I really have to keep my window shade open for takeoff? Some of us would prefer not to watch the world whiz by at 150 mph.
If the shades are open, passengers can keep track of which way is up during an emergency. Windows are also a source of light if the cabin goes dark. The crew dims the lights during takeoff so, if the plane loses power, your eyes won’t have a hard time adjusting to the dark.
back a week
Been back about a week now. Finally feels like I’m back, whereas the last time I knew I had the vacation so I was still mentally in India. It’s nice to be back. It’s a different world here. I’m not sure which is better. On the one hand it’s nice to be around things that are “nicer” and clearner, but it’s much faster here. It’s noisy, in the sense of so much movement around you (cars go faster, TV goes faster, 24×7 news down your throat, stock markets, etc.). I think quality of life is better in India. You give up a lot of things, but I think what you gain is some peace that is harder to find here…well, could always go back to Montana.
